Polls, Heatwave, Impacted Logistics Sector in June 2024 – Shriram Mobility Bulletin

• The heatwave, delayed monsoons, elections led to stress in rural hinterlands impacting logistics sector in June 2024

• Passenger vehicle sales experienced a notable decline, falling by 6.77% (YoY) and 7.18% (MoM)

• Inventory levels at vehicle dealerships have reached an all-time high, ranging from 62 to 67 days

• Even as prices of used trucks have risen sharply (YoY), there was some cooling off in June in many categories

• The Houthi attack last November has clogged up major transhipment hubs, firing up demand for containers

The July 2024 edition of the Shriram Mobility Bulletin, released today, provides insightful data on the current state of the automobile and logistics sector. Motor car sales saw a decline of 9%, while fuel consumption for petrol and diesel dropped by 5% in June 2024, although year-over-year (YoY) consumption increased by 4% and 1%, respectively. Truck rentals experienced a 2.6% decrease on the Mumbai-Kolkata-Mumbai route but saw a 4.1% increase on the Kolkata-Guwahati-Kolkata route. Sales of used commercial vehicles grew on a YoY basis, with a rise of 7% for 7.5 to 16-ton capacity vehicles and 43% for 31 to 36-ton capacity vehicles. FASTag toll collections rose by 2% in volume and 7% in value on a YoY basis. Additionally, the generation of e-way bills showed a month-over-month (MoM) increase of 8% for intra-state and 5% for inter-state transactions for the month of May.

Over the past two years, prices for all types of used commercial vehicles, whether BS IV or BS VI, have increased 25-30%. The subdued sales during 2019-22 have resulted in a shortage of supply in the used truck market.

With new vehicle prices still on the rise, the used truck market is experiencing significant traction, and prices for used vehicles are expected to remain strong. While the prices may not go up like last year, there could be some correction compared with FY24.

The current batch of new trucks (comprising last-year and one-year-old vehicles) will be available after a few years in the pre-owned segment. This could potentially drive sustained growth in the used vehicle segment.

Appended below are highlights for Used Commercial Vehicle prices on the Month-on-Month and Year-on-Year scenario across categories tracked in the Shriram Mobility Bulletin.

• On a YoY basis, prices across all vehicle categories have increased ranging from 6% for 25 to 28.5 ton capacity vehicles to 43% for 31 to 36 ton capacity vehicles. The prices of 1.5 to 2 ton capacity vehicles rose by 38%, between 2 to 3.5 ton capacity rose by 22% and that of 3.5 to 7.5 ton capacity rose by 21%. We observed a marginal increase in the prices of vehicles between 7.5 to 19 ton capacities ranging from 7% to 9%. Interestingly, prices of 37 to 43.5 ton capacity increased by 18% YOY.

• On a MoM basis, except for the prices of 1.5 to 2 ton capacity vehicles dropping by 6%, vehicles between 2 to 16 ton capacity vehicles rose between 7% and 21%. Interestingly, prices for vehicles in the 3.5 to 7.5 tons capacity did not change at all. The prices of vehicles in the 16 to 43.5 ton capacity saw a drop in prices ranging from 4% to 9% except for the 25 to 28.5 ton vehicles where prices increased by a meagre 1%.

Mr. YS Chakravarti, MD & CEO of Shriram Finance Ltd. speaking about the June 2024 Mobility Bulletinsaid, “With the new government in place and with monsoon rain expected to gain strength, businesses are hopeful that policy action from the government will help push economic activity into a higher orbit. The slowdown across sectors including road transport, vehicle sales appears temporary.”

Shriram Finance Limited also believes that the ongoing Kharif season, which will head towards harvest by mid-August could boost the sales of Agricultural, Trailer and Commercial Tractors.

About Shriram Finance

Shriram Finance Limited is the flagship company of the Shriram group which has significant presence in Consumer Finance, Life Insurance, General Insurance, Housing Finance, Stock Broking and Distribution businesses. Shriram Finance Limited is one of India’s largest retail asset financing Non-Banking Finance Companies (NBFC) with Assets under Management (AUM) above Rs. 2.24 trillion. Established in 1979, Shriram Finance is a holistic finance provider catering to the needs of Small Road Transport Operators and small business owners and is a leader in organised financing of pre-owned commercial vehicles and two wheelers. It has vertically integrated business model and offers financing number of products which include passenger commercial vehicles, loans to micro and small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), tractors & farm equipment, gold, personal loans and working capital loans etc. Over last 45 years, it has developed strong competencies in the areas of loan origination, valuation of pre-owned commercial vehicles and other assets, and collections. It has a pan India presence with network of 3,082 branches and an employee strength of 74,645 servicing to 83.97 lakhs of customers.

About Shriram Mobility Bulletin

Shriram Finance Limited, the flagship company of the Shriram Group, publish the monthly Shriram Mobility Bulletin. The Shriram Mobility Bulletin aims to provide stakeholders with a picture of India statistical data about the logistics and automobile sector through its nationwide network of fleet owners & vehicle dealers and analyses it to identify trends for its stakeholders.