National News

Scientists working on SUTRA model for charting trajectory of COVID-19

We, the scientists working on the SUTRA model for charting the trajectory of COVID-19, would like to clearly point out some facts related to predictions of our mathematical model, especially since some of these have been misunderstood and misquoted. Recent reports in some media seem to suggest that scientists working on the SUTRA model cautioned in March about the second wave but attention was not paid to it. This is incorrect.
A meeting was called on 2nd April to seek our inputs by one of the very senior officers of the government coordinating the national pandemic response. We indicated that the SUTRA model predicted the second wave to peak by the third week of April and to stay most likely around 1 lakh daily cases.  Clearly the model predictions in this instance were incorrect because of the reasons below.
We have been working on a mathematical model to predict the spread of the virus. It is important to note that a mathematical model can only predict future with some certainty so long as virus dynamics and its transmissibility don’t change substantially over time. Mathematical models can also provide a mechanism to predicting alternate scenarios corresponding to various policy decisions such as non-pharmaceutical interventions.
In the case of COVID-19, it is clear that the nature of the virus has been changing very rapidly. In such a context, any prediction for COVID-19 must be continually readjusted, sometimes almost daily.
We are working closely with the government and our inputs have always been received positively. While we could not predict the exact nature of the second wave earlier, we continue our efforts to better estimate its future trajectory.
Manindra Agrawal, Professor, IIT Kanpur
Madhuri Kanitkar, Deputy Chief, Integrated Defense Staff
M Vidyasagar, Professor, IIT Hyderabad

*****************************

Also See:

newsonline

Recent Posts

Vinpearl Woos Indian Luxury Travelers with Strategic Two-pronged Focus

Vietnam, with its rich cultural heritage and stunning natural beauty, has become an increasingly attractive…

2 days ago

The Bioceramic MoonSwatch MISSION TO EARTHPHASE Celebrates the Splendor of the Earth as Seen from the Moon

The Bioceramic MoonSwatch MISSION TO EARTHPHASE celebrates our two nearest celestial bodies, the Earth and…

2 days ago

Renaissance Global Unveils Renaei: A New Fashion Jewelry Brand Crafted for Gen Z & Millennials

Renaissance Global Limited (RGL), a global leader in branded fine Jewellery, today announced the launch…

2 days ago

Grand Opening of Kalasha Fine Jewels: South India’s Finest Jewellery Store Now Open in Bangalore

Kalasha Fine Jewels showcased the most extravagant and exclusive handcrafted jewellery collection at the store…

2 days ago

Signature Global Hosts its First-Ever Grand Home Fest ‘BOAT’ with Unmatched Diwali Offers

Signature Global, India's leading real estate company, celebrated its first-ever grand home fest, BOAT (Best…

2 days ago

Upgrade Your Smartphone Game with the Best Deals on 5G Phones This Diwali Season

With shoppers gearing up for Diwali festivities, those looking to upgrade their handsets have the…

2 days ago